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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Jack Jenkins won · U-DEC R3
Elo1509
Elo1449

Jack JenkinsvsDon ShainisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Saturday, February 11, 2023Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jack Jenkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJack Jenkins: Elusive strikervsDon Shainis: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Jack Jenkins wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Jack Jenkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Jenkins at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jack Jenkins has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jack Jenkins has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jack Jenkins (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Jenkins
Red Corner
VS
Don Shainis
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
1509
Elo
1449
32
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Jenkins
oldest →
W
vs Jamall Emmers · Jun 23
L
KOvs Chepe Mariscal · Sep 23
W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 24
L
SUBvs Gabriel Santos · Feb 25
W
vs Ramon Taveras · Sep 25
latest
Don Shainis
oldest →
L
SUBvs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack JenkinsMetricDon Shainis
4.48
Strikes / min
3.42
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
5.87
59%
Strike defense
31%
1.98
TDs / 15 min
0.97
71%
Takedown defense
20%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.53Δ 3.98 — meaningful gap-2.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1487Strikes4.8 vs 3.4Takedowns2.1 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.90Form0.0 vs -0.9
Jack JenkinsDon Shainis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jack Jenkins(6 fights)Don Shainis(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +60.5|Blue -60.5
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Grappler Score
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack JenkinsTargetDon Shainis

By target zone

45
56% acc · 55%
Head
26
38% acc · 52%
23
88% acc · 28%
Body
17
74% acc · 34%
14
88% acc · 17%
Leg
7
64% acc · 14%

By position

53
59% acc · 65%
Distance
29
40% acc · 58%
21
88% acc · 26%
Clinch
14
67% acc · 28%
8
89% acc · 10%
Ground
7
88% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Jack Jenkins rounds
0
even
0
Don Shainis rounds
Round 1Jack Jenkins edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 2Jack Jenkins edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns2
Control1:59
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:30Control
Round 3Jack Jenkins edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns2
Control4:01
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
82 / 123
Sig Strikes
50 / 102
68.7%
Sig Str %
50%
100 / 150
Total Strikes
128 / 187
4 / 5
TDs
1 / 3
83%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
2
6:00
Ctrl Time
2:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Don Shainis25 / 5528 / 580 / 20
1Jack Jenkins34 / 5935 / 600 / 00
2Don Shainis15 / 2858 / 741 / 10
2Jack Jenkins23 / 3325 / 352 / 30
3Don Shainis10 / 1942 / 550 / 02
3Jack Jenkins25 / 3140 / 552 / 20

Jack Jenkins

StanceSwitch
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6

Don Shainis

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights2