Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chepe Mariscal won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1509

Elo1527

Jack JenkinsvsChepe MariscalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Chepe Mariscal won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:19

Style matchupJack Jenkins: Elusive strikervsChepe Mariscal: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Chepe Mariscal wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Chepe Mariscal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chepe Mariscal at +188 American odds

+$188 profit

$288 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jack Jenkins (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Jenkins

Red Corner

Chepe Mariscal

Blue Corner

-218

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1509

Elo

1527

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Jenkins

oldest →

vs Don Shainis · Feb 23

vs Jamall Emmers · Jun 23

KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 24

SUBvs Gabriel Santos · Feb 25

vs Ramon Taveras · Sep 25

latest

Chepe Mariscal

oldest →

vs Trevor Peek · Jun 23

vs Morgan Charriere · Apr 24

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 24

vs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 25

vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack JenkinsMetricChepe Mariscal

4.48

Strikes / min

4.14

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

59%

Strike defense

52%

1.98

TDs / 15 min

2.34

71%

Takedown defense

59%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53evenly matched on net striking+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack JenkinsChepe Mariscal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Jenkins(6 fights)Chepe Mariscal(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.4|Blue +17.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack JenkinsTargetChepe Mariscal

By target zone

44% acc · 39%

Head

26% acc · 37%

72% acc · 32%

Body

69% acc · 29%

86% acc · 29%

Leg

72% acc · 34%

By position

58% acc · 85%

Distance

35% acc · 61%

75% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 37%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Jenkins rounds

even

Chepe Mariscal rounds

Round 1Jack Jenkins edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:07

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:19Control

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 68

Sig Strikes

38 / 87

58.5%

Sig Str %

46.5%

43 / 70

Total Strikes

87 / 143

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chepe Mariscal	23 / 60	38 / 78	0 / 0
1	Jack Jenkins	31 / 50	33 / 52	0 / 0
2	Chepe Mariscal	15 / 27	49 / 65	1 / 1
2	Jack Jenkins	10 / 18	10 / 18	0 / 1

Jack Jenkins

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Chepe Mariscal

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6