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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Roman Dolidze won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1480

Elo1497

Jack HermanssonvsRoman DolidzeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Roman Dolidze won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:06

Model Prediction: Roman Dolidze wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Roman Dolidze wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roman Dolidze at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roman Dolidze is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Jack Hermansson has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson

Red Corner

Roman Dolidze

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1480

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 22

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Roman DolidzeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Jun 24

KOvs Kevin Holland · Oct 24

vs Marvin Vettori · Mar 25

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Aug 25

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricRoman Dolidze

5.15

Strikes / min

3.19

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

56%

Strike defense

48%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

1.16

80%

Takedown defense

32%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack HermanssonRoman Dolidze

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Roman Dolidze(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.0|Blue +17.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetRoman Dolidze

By target zone

39% acc · 34%

Head

45% acc · 92%

69% acc · 23%

Body

67% acc · 8%

91% acc · 43%

Leg

By position

58% acc · 91%

Distance

32% acc · 48%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

80% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Hermansson rounds

even

Roman Dolidze rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:06

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:46

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 79

Sig Strikes

25 / 54

59%

Sig Str %

40%

48 / 80

Total Strikes

39 / 73

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roman Dolidze	4 / 16	7 / 19	0 / 0	1
1	Jack Hermansson	25 / 40	26 / 41	1 / 1	0
2	Roman Dolidze	21 / 38	32 / 54	0 / 0	2
2	Jack Hermansson	22 / 39	22 / 39	1 / 2	0

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Roman Dolidze

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14