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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Myktybek Orolbai won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1549

Jack HermanssonvsMyktybek OrolbaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Myktybek Orolbai won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:46

Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Myktybek Orolbai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Myktybek Orolbai at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jack Hermansson has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson

Red Corner

Myktybek Orolbai

Blue Corner

+166

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-198

(66%)

1480

Elo

1549

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Hermansson

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 22

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

latest

Myktybek OrolbaiW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Uros Medic · Nov 23

vs Elves Brener · May 24

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Oct 24

SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25

vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricMyktybek Orolbai

5.15

Strikes / min

2.78

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

56%

Strike defense

51%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

8.77

80%

Takedown defense

40%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack HermanssonMyktybek Orolbai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.5|Blue +68.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetMyktybek Orolbai

By target zone

36% acc · 47%

Head

36% acc · 60%

63% acc · 26%

Body

60% acc · 20%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

47% acc · 89%

Distance

42% acc · 87%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Hermansson rounds

even

Myktybek Orolbai rounds

Round 1Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 38

Sig Strikes

15 / 33

50%

Sig Str %

45%

19 / 38

Total Strikes

15 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Myktybek Orolbai	15 / 33	15 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Jack Hermansson	19 / 38	19 / 38	0 / 0	0

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Myktybek Orolbai

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6