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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Marvin Vettori won · U-DEC

Elo1480

Elo1467

Jack HermanssonvsMarvin VettoriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Saturday, December 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

U-DEC

Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsMarvin Vettori: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson

Red Corner

Marvin Vettori

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-134

(57%)

1480

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricMarvin Vettori

5.15

Strikes / min

4.74

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

4.55

56%

Strike defense

56%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

1.41

80%

Takedown defense

68%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack HermanssonMarvin Vettori

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Marvin Vettori(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.1|Blue -13.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetMarvin Vettori

By target zone

28% acc · 70%

Head

143

46% acc · 87%

82% acc · 15%

Body

95% acc · 11%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

118

35% acc · 97%

Distance

156

49% acc · 95%

57% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

62% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Hermansson rounds

even

Marvin Vettori rounds

Round 1Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:29Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control0:28

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:28Control

Round 3Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

122 / 346

Sig Strikes

164 / 334

37%

Sig Str %

48.6%

139 / 365

Total Strikes

202 / 376

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

5:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marvin Vettori	23 / 47	58 / 83	0 / 0	1
1	Jack Hermansson	16 / 38	17 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Marvin Vettori	12 / 24	14 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Jack Hermansson	15 / 35	20 / 40	2 / 4	0
3	Marvin Vettori	23 / 50	23 / 51	0 / 0	0
3	Jack Hermansson	29 / 72	35 / 78	0 / 3	0
4	Jack Hermansson	32 / 106	32 / 106	0 / 0	0
4	Marvin Vettori	52 / 104	52 / 104	0 / 0	0
5	Marvin Vettori	54 / 109	55 / 111	0 / 1	0
5	Jack Hermansson	30 / 95	35 / 102	0 / 0	0

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17