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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Jack Hermansson won · U-DEC R5
Elo1480
Jack Hermansson
Elo1553
Joe Pyfer

Jack HermanssonvsJoe PyferUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Saturday, February 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsJoe Pyfer: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Joe Pyfer wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Pyfer at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jack Hermansson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joe Pyfer enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Joe Pyfer is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.
  • Jack Hermansson has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson
Red Corner
VS
Joe Pyfer
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
1480
Elo
1553
38
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack HermanssonL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Sean Strickland · Feb 22
W
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22
L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22
L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25
L
KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25
latest
Joe PyferW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Oct 23
W
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 24
W
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 25
W
KOvs Israel Adesanya · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricJoe Pyfer
5.15
Strikes / min
3.52
3.72
Strikes absorbed / min
3.22
56%
Strike defense
52%
1.48
TDs / 15 min
1.45
80%
Takedown defense
62%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1571 vs 1553Strikes5.1 vs 3.7Takedowns1.5 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.90Form-0.2 vs 1.0
Jack HermanssonJoe Pyfer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701495152015451570← oldermost recent →
Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Joe Pyfer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -72.7|Blue +72.7
Recent Form
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +308.0|Blue -308.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetJoe Pyfer

By target zone

74
43% acc · 61%
Head
56
29% acc · 61%
15
65% acc · 12%
Body
25
74% acc · 27%
32
84% acc · 26%
Leg
11
55% acc · 12%

By position

111
51% acc · 92%
Distance
92
37% acc · 100%
5
83% acc · 4%
Clinch
0
5
50% acc · 4%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Jack Hermansson rounds
0
even
2
Joe Pyfer rounds
Round 1Joe Pyfer edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Joe Pyfer edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:07
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 5Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control3:01
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
121 / 235
Sig Strikes
92 / 250
50%
Sig Str %
34.6%
188 / 327
Total Strikes
95 / 254
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 6
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:08
Ctrl Time
0:50

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jack Hermansson16 / 3816 / 380 / 00
1Joe Pyfer24 / 5824 / 580 / 00
2Joe Pyfer22 / 6022 / 600 / 00
2Jack Hermansson19 / 3819 / 380 / 10
3Joe Pyfer20 / 6520 / 650 / 30
3Jack Hermansson37 / 6943 / 770 / 00
4Joe Pyfer22 / 4623 / 480 / 30
4Jack Hermansson33 / 5758 / 840 / 00
5Jack Hermansson16 / 3352 / 901 / 10
5Joe Pyfer4 / 216 / 230 / 00

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19

Joe Pyfer

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8