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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Jared Cannonier won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1480

Elo1481

Jack HermanssonvsJared CannonierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Saturday, September 28, 2019Copenhagen, Denmark

Official fight result

Jared Cannonier won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:27

Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsJared Cannonier: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Jared Cannonier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Cannonier is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Jack Hermansson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson

Red Corner

Jared Cannonier

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1480

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricJared Cannonier

5.15

Strikes / min

4.42

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

4.35

56%

Strike defense

56%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

0.54

80%

Takedown defense

64%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack HermanssonJared Cannonier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Jared Cannonier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetJared Cannonier

By target zone

24% acc · 25%

Head

49% acc · 75%

40% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 7%

81% acc · 65%

Leg

71% acc · 18%

By position

46% acc · 95%

Distance

29% acc · 36%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Hermansson rounds

even

Jared Cannonier rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:45

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 42

Sig Strikes

28 / 53

56%

Sig Str %

58%

22 / 45

Total Strikes

29 / 54

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

16%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Cannonier	10 / 32	11 / 33	0 / 0
1	Jack Hermansson	18 / 39	20 / 42	1 / 6
2	Jared Cannonier	18 / 21	18 / 21	0 / 0
2	Jack Hermansson	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21