← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gregory Rodrigues won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Jack HermanssonvsGregory RodriguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gregory Rodrigues won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:21

Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Gregory Rodrigues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gregory Rodrigues is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson

Red Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

Blue Corner

+172

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1480

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Hermansson

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 22

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Gregory RodriguesW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brad Tavares · Feb 24

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25

vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricGregory Rodrigues

5.15

Strikes / min

5.53

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

56%

Strike defense

50%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

1.90

80%

Takedown defense

75%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack HermanssonGregory Rodrigues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.8|Blue +67.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +371.0|Blue -371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetGregory Rodrigues

By target zone

49% acc · 80%

Head

20% acc · 61%

100% acc · 7%

Body

75% acc · 33%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

56% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Hermansson rounds

even

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 55

Sig Strikes

18 / 63

54%

Sig Str %

28%

30 / 55

Total Strikes

18 / 63

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gregory Rodrigues	18 / 63	18 / 63	0 / 0	0
1	Jack Hermansson	30 / 55	30 / 55	0 / 1	0

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13