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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Hermansson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1492

Jack HermanssonvsChris CurtisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsChris Curtis: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Chris Curtis wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Curtis at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Curtis is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Jack Hermansson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson

Red Corner

Chris Curtis

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1480

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricChris Curtis

5.15

Strikes / min

5.52

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

5.75

56%

Strike defense

54%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

0.00

80%

Takedown defense

64%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack HermanssonChris Curtis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Chris Curtis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.4|Blue +11.4

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetChris Curtis

By target zone

27% acc · 48%

Head

20% acc · 42%

56% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 58%

90% acc · 27%

Leg

0% acc

By position

40% acc · 99%

Distance

33% acc · 95%

20% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Hermansson rounds

even

Chris Curtis rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 251

Sig Strikes

43 / 125

38.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

100 / 251

Total Strikes

43 / 125

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Curtis	7 / 28	7 / 28	0 / 0
1	Jack Hermansson	21 / 65	21 / 65	0 / 1
2	Chris Curtis	16 / 40	16 / 40	0 / 0
2	Jack Hermansson	45 / 108	45 / 108	0 / 2
3	Chris Curtis	20 / 57	20 / 57	0 / 0
3	Jack Hermansson	34 / 78	34 / 78	0 / 3

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11