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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Hermansson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1360

Jack HermanssonvsAlex NicholsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · Sunday, May 28, 2017Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:00

Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsAlex Nicholson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Nicholson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Jack Hermansson has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson

Red Corner

Alex Nicholson

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1480

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Alex Nicholson

oldest →

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 16

KOvs Devin Clark · Jul 16

vs Sam Alvey · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricAlex Nicholson

5.15

Strikes / min

4.12

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

56%

Strike defense

47%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

0.00

80%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap-0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack HermanssonAlex Nicholson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Alex Nicholson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.0|Blue -120.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetAlex Nicholson

By target zone

79% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 4%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

81% acc · 96%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Hermansson rounds

even

Alex Nicholson rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:39

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 29

Sig Strikes

1 / 4

79%

Sig Str %

25%

39 / 47

Total Strikes

3 / 6

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:39

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Nicholson	1 / 4	3 / 6	0 / 0	1
1	Jack Hermansson	23 / 29	39 / 47	1 / 1	0

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Alex Nicholson

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4