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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jack Della Maddalena won · SUB R1

Elo1506

Elo1498

Jack Della MaddalenavsRandy BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Saturday, February 11, 2023Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jack Della Maddalena won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:13

Style matchupJack Della Maddalena: Pressure fightervsRandy Brown: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Jack Della Maddalena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Della Maddalena at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jack Della Maddalena (52.9%).
Randy Brown has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Della Maddalena

Red Corner

Randy Brown

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1506

Elo

1498

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Della MaddalenaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 23

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 24

vs Belal Muhammad · May 25

vs Islam Makhachev · Nov 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · May 26

latest

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack Della MaddalenaMetricRandy Brown

5.32

Strikes / min

4.39

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

61%

Strike defense

53%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.71

64%

Takedown defense

74%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.08evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack Della MaddalenaRandy Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Della Maddalena(10 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.3|Blue -8.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack Della MaddalenaTargetRandy Brown

By target zone

39% acc · 64%

Head

18% acc · 55%

50% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 18%

67% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

28% acc · 36%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

64% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Della Maddalena rounds

even

Randy Brown rounds

Round 1Jack Della Maddalena edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 31

Sig Strikes

11 / 39

45%

Sig Str %

28%

18 / 35

Total Strikes

11 / 39

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randy Brown	11 / 39	11 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Jack Della Maddalena	14 / 31	18 / 35	0 / 0	1

Jack Della Maddalena

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21