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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · U-DEC R5
Elo1506
Jack Della Maddalena
Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration

Jack Della MaddalenavsIslam MakhachevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJack Della Maddalena: Pressure fightervsIslam Makhachev: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Islam Makhachev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jack Della Maddalena (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Della Maddalena
Red Corner
VS
Islam Makhachev
Blue Corner
+260
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
1506
Elo
1544
29
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Della Maddalena
oldest →
W
vs Bassil Hafez · Jul 23
W
vs Kevin Holland · Sep 23
W
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 24
W
vs Belal Muhammad · May 25
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · May 26
latest
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack Della MaddalenaMetricIslam Makhachev
5.32
Strikes / min
2.45
4.24
Strikes absorbed / min
1.45
61%
Strike defense
61%
0.34
TDs / 15 min
3.10
64%
Takedown defense
91%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.08evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1655 vs 1756Strikes5.6 vs 2.5Takedowns0.1 vs 3.1Sub Atts0.10 vs 1.00Form1.1 vs 1.1
Jack Della MaddalenaIslam Makhachev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Jack Della Maddalena(10 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -37.8|Blue +37.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack Della MaddalenaTargetIslam Makhachev

By target zone

10
22% acc · 56%
Head
14
35% acc · 47%
6
50% acc · 33%
Body
6
86% acc · 20%
2
50% acc · 11%
Leg
10
100% acc · 33%

By position

14
25% acc · 78%
Distance
20
49% acc · 67%
4
80% acc · 22%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 10%
0
Ground
7
58% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jack Della Maddalena rounds
0
even
5
Islam Makhachev rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:52Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
4:05Control
Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:06Control
Round 4Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:24Control
Round 5Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 61
Sig Strikes
30 / 57
28.4%
Sig Str %
41.6%
30 / 74
Total Strikes
140 / 188
0 / 1
TDs
4 / 4
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
19:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Islam Makhachev3 / 820 / 361 / 10
1Jack Della Maddalena4 / 1811 / 260 / 00
2Islam Makhachev9 / 1736 / 460 / 00
2Jack Della Maddalena3 / 66 / 90 / 10
3Islam Makhachev11 / 1832 / 441 / 10
3Jack Della Maddalena9 / 2011 / 220 / 00
4Jack Della Maddalena1 / 111 / 110 / 00
4Islam Makhachev7 / 1230 / 371 / 10
5Islam Makhachev0 / 222 / 251 / 10
5Jack Della Maddalena1 / 61 / 60 / 00

Jack Della Maddalena

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18