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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Carlos Prates won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1506
Jack Della Maddalena
Elo1567

Jack Della MaddalenavsCarlos PratesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · Saturday, May 2, 2026Perth, Australia

Official fight result

Carlos Prates won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:17

Style matchupJack Della Maddalena: Pressure fightervsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Carlos Prates wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Carlos Prates is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jack Della Maddalena has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Jack Della Maddalena has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Carlos Prates has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Della Maddalena
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Prates
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1506
Elo
1567
29
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Della Maddalena
oldest →
W
vs Bassil Hafez · Jul 23
W
vs Kevin Holland · Sep 23
W
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 24
W
vs Belal Muhammad · May 25
L
vs Islam Makhachev · Nov 25
latest
Carlos PratesW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24
W
KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Apr 25
W
KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 25
W
KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack Della MaddalenaMetricCarlos Prates
5.32
Strikes / min
4.41
4.24
Strikes absorbed / min
4.30
61%
Strike defense
47%
0.34
TDs / 15 min
0.18
64%
Takedown defense
77%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.08evenly matched on net striking+0.11
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901513153515581580← oldermost recent →
Jack Della Maddalena(10 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -61.6|Blue +61.6
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Jack Della Maddalena

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9

Carlos Prates

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7