← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Yoel Romero won · S-DEC R3

Elo1400

Elo1382

Jacare SouzavsYoel RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yoel Romero won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsYoel Romero: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yoel Romero wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Yoel Romero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoel Romero at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yoel Romero enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yoel Romero has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Yoel Romero (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza

Red Corner

Yoel Romero

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1400

Elo

1382

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Yoel RomeroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 19

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricYoel Romero

2.53

Strikes / min

3.44

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

62%

Strike defense

60%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

1.57

57%

Takedown defense

78%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacare SouzaYoel Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacare Souza(10 fights)Yoel Romero(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.8|Blue -18.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetYoel Romero

By target zone

46% acc · 53%

Head

46% acc · 80%

79% acc · 37%

Body

83% acc · 11%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 9%

By position

50% acc · 73%

Distance

48% acc · 52%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 27%

Ground

54% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacare Souza rounds

even

Yoel Romero rounds

Round 1Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:45Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:08

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:25

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 52

Sig Strikes

46 / 92

54%

Sig Str %

50%

42 / 67

Total Strikes

56 / 104

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

1:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yoel Romero	27 / 57	30 / 61	0 / 0
1	Jacare Souza	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 0
2	Yoel Romero	6 / 14	6 / 14	0 / 1
2	Jacare Souza	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 4
3	Yoel Romero	13 / 21	20 / 29	0 / 0
3	Jacare Souza	18 / 23	30 / 38	1 / 3

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13