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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Jacare Souza won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1400
Jacare Souza
Elo1491
Vitor Belfort

Jacare SouzavsVitor BelfortUFC Prediction Result

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · Saturday, May 14, 2016Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

Official fight result

Jacare Souza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:38

Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacare Souza at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Jacare Souza has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Vitor Belfort (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza
Red Corner
VS
Vitor Belfort
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1400
Elo
1491
46
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19
L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19
L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20
L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21
latest
Vitor Belfort
oldest →
L
KOvs Chris Weidman · May 15
W
KOvs Dan Henderson · Nov 15
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Oct 16
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Jun 17
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · May 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricVitor Belfort
2.53
Strikes / min
1.59
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
62%
Strike defense
50%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
1.02
57%
Takedown defense
53%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30evenly matched on net striking-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1577 vs 1561Strikes20.0 vs 10.8Takedowns1.5 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.38Form0.1 vs 0.4
Jacare SouzaVitor Belfort

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Vitor Belfort(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -90.7|Blue +90.7
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetVitor Belfort

By target zone

38
72% acc · 97%
Head
3
75% acc · 75%
1
50% acc · 3%
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
0
Leg
0

By position

1
33% acc · 3%
Distance
0
0% acc
2
50% acc · 5%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 25%
36
75% acc · 92%
Ground
3
100% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jacare Souza rounds
0
even
0
Vitor Belfort rounds
Round 1Jacare Souza edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns1
Control3:09
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
39 / 55
Sig Strikes
4 / 5
70%
Sig Str %
80%
54 / 72
Total Strikes
5 / 6
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
33%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:09
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vitor Belfort4 / 55 / 60 / 00
1Jacare Souza39 / 5554 / 721 / 30

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13