← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jacare Souza won · SUB R1

Elo1400

Elo1371

Jacare SouzavsTim BoetschUFC Prediction Result

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · Saturday, February 11, 2017Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jacare Souza won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:41

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsTim Boetsch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacare Souza at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jacare Souza threatens submissions; Tim Boetsch has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza

Red Corner

Tim Boetsch

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1400

Elo

1371

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Samman · Jul 16

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricTim Boetsch

2.53

Strikes / min

2.93

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

62%

Strike defense

57%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

1.45

57%

Takedown defense

59%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacare SouzaTim Boetsch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacare Souza(10 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.1|Blue -29.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetTim Boetsch

By target zone

38% acc · 71%

Head

33% acc · 33%

40% acc · 29%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

36% acc · 71%

Distance

60% acc · 100%

33% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacare Souza rounds

even

Tim Boetsch rounds

Round 1Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:14

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 18

Sig Strikes

6 / 10

38%

Sig Str %

60%

15 / 30

Total Strikes

8 / 12

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Boetsch	6 / 10	8 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Jacare Souza	7 / 18	15 / 30	1 / 2	1

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20