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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1400

Elo1511

Jacare SouzavsRobert WhittakerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:28

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsRobert Whittaker: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacare Souza at -265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Robert Whittaker has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza

Red Corner

Robert Whittaker

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1400

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricRobert Whittaker

2.53

Strikes / min

4.39

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.36

62%

Strike defense

59%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

0.73

57%

Takedown defense

82%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacare SouzaRobert Whittaker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacare Souza(10 fights)Robert Whittaker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -110.7|Blue +110.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetRobert Whittaker

By target zone

19% acc · 67%

Head

48% acc · 85%

60% acc · 33%

Body

58% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

19% acc · 67%

Distance

47% acc · 73%

75% acc · 33%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

Ground

67% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacare Souza rounds

even

Robert Whittaker rounds

Round 1Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:48

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 36

Sig Strikes

55 / 110

26.5%

Sig Str %

49%

13 / 40

Total Strikes

57 / 112

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Robert Whittaker	18 / 39	19 / 40	0 / 0
1	Jacare Souza	5 / 24	8 / 27	1 / 2
2	Robert Whittaker	37 / 71	38 / 72	0 / 0
2	Jacare Souza	4 / 12	5 / 13	0 / 1

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26