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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · S-DEC R3

Elo1400

Elo1492

Jacare SouzavsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacare Souza at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jacare Souza threatens submissions; Kelvin Gastelum has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1400

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricKelvin Gastelum

2.53

Strikes / min

3.65

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

62%

Strike defense

57%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

1.04

57%

Takedown defense

60%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacare Souza(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -91.2|Blue +91.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

50% acc · 66%

Head

33% acc · 83%

70% acc · 33%

Body

70% acc · 13%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

47% acc · 66%

Distance

33% acc · 77%

73% acc · 13%

Clinch

90% acc · 17%

100% acc · 22%

Ground

30% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacare Souza rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control2:57

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:30

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 115

Sig Strikes

53 / 145

62.7%

Sig Str %

55%

78 / 129

Total Strikes

57 / 149

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

8.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:28

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kelvin Gastelum	7 / 7	9 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Jacare Souza	21 / 22	32 / 33	0 / 2	1
2	Kelvin Gastelum	24 / 73	24 / 73	0 / 0	0
2	Jacare Souza	24 / 56	24 / 56	0 / 3	0
3	Kelvin Gastelum	22 / 65	24 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Jacare Souza	19 / 37	22 / 40	1 / 4	0

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24