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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Jack Hermansson won · U-DEC R5
Elo1400
Jacare Souza
Elo1480
Jack Hermansson

Jacare SouzavsJack HermanssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsJack Hermansson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jacare Souza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jack Hermansson has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jack Hermansson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza
Red Corner
VS
Jack Hermansson
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1400
Elo
1480
46
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · May 18
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18
L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19
L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20
L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21
latest
Jack HermanssonL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22
L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22
W
vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24
L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25
L
KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricJack Hermansson
2.53
Strikes / min
5.15
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
3.72
62%
Strike defense
56%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
1.48
57%
Takedown defense
80%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1611 vs 1575Strikes26.8 vs 30.9Takedowns1.1 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.38Form0.4 vs 0.8
Jacare SouzaJack Hermansson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -80.1|Blue +80.1
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetJack Hermansson

By target zone

65
46% acc · 72%
Head
96
31% acc · 65%
24
73% acc · 27%
Body
32
89% acc · 22%
1
100% acc · 1%
Leg
20
87% acc · 14%

By position

74
48% acc · 82%
Distance
120
35% acc · 81%
15
75% acc · 17%
Clinch
24
83% acc · 16%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
4
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jacare Souza rounds
1
even
4
Jack Hermansson rounds
Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:29
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:32Control
Round 2Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:59Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 4Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
50Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
Round 5Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
90 / 175
Sig Strikes
148 / 372
52%
Sig Str %
40.8%
120 / 205
Total Strikes
256 / 496
0 / 3
TDs
3 / 10
0%
TD %
33.2%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:29
Ctrl Time
6:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jack Hermansson26 / 4429 / 470 / 11
1Jacare Souza7 / 1726 / 360 / 10
2Jack Hermansson9 / 25107 / 1391 / 10
2Jacare Souza8 / 1210 / 140 / 00
3Jack Hermansson28 / 8128 / 810 / 40
3Jacare Souza30 / 5030 / 500 / 10
4Jacare Souza19 / 4022 / 430 / 00
4Jack Hermansson50 / 12350 / 1230 / 10
5Jack Hermansson35 / 9942 / 1062 / 30
5Jacare Souza26 / 5632 / 620 / 10

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19