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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Jacare Souza won · SUB R3

Elo1400

Elo1491

Jacare SouzavsGegard MousasiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

Jacare Souza won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:30

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsGegard Mousasi: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacare Souza at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jacare Souza threatens submissions; Gegard Mousasi has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Gegard Mousasi has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza

Red Corner

Gegard Mousasi

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1400

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Gegard MousasiW5 streak

oldest →

vs Thales Leites · Feb 16

KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16

KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricGegard Mousasi

2.53

Strikes / min

3.75

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.21

62%

Strike defense

68%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

1.59

57%

Takedown defense

59%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap+2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacare SouzaGegard Mousasi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacare Souza(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -90.4|Blue +90.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetGegard Mousasi

By target zone

41% acc · 47%

Head

43% acc · 88%

82% acc · 28%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

41% acc · 50%

Distance

42% acc · 73%

83% acc · 16%

Clinch

64% acc · 27%

100% acc · 34%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacare Souza rounds

even

Gegard Mousasi rounds

Round 1Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:05

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:03

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:39

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 56

Sig Strikes

26 / 56

59.7%

Sig Str %

39.7%

59 / 86

Total Strikes

78 / 109

4 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

41.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:47

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gegard Mousasi	8 / 14	25 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Jacare Souza	9 / 12	22 / 26	1 / 4	0
2	Gegard Mousasi	1 / 8	27 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Jacare Souza	12 / 23	19 / 30	1 / 3	0
3	Gegard Mousasi	17 / 34	26 / 43	0 / 0	0
3	Jacare Souza	11 / 21	18 / 30	2 / 3	1

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12