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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jacare Souza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1400

Elo1353

Jacare SouzavsFrancis CarmontUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · Saturday, February 15, 2014Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Jacare Souza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francis Carmont wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Carmont at +435 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Francis Carmont has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Francis Carmont has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza

Red Corner

Francis Carmont

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1400

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Francis CarmontL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Lawlor · Nov 12

vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13

DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13

vs CB Dollaway · May 14

KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricFrancis Carmont

2.53

Strikes / min

2.22

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.64

62%

Strike defense

59%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

1.79

57%

Takedown defense

73%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacare SouzaFrancis Carmont

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacare Souza(10 fights)Francis Carmont(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.9|Blue -46.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +17.0|Blue -17.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetFrancis Carmont

By target zone

26% acc · 63%

Head

24% acc · 74%

67% acc · 25%

Body

29% acc · 11%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

60% acc · 16%

By position

20% acc · 44%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacare Souza rounds

even

Francis Carmont rounds

Round 1Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control3:52

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Francis Carmont edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:42

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:05

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 47

Sig Strikes

19 / 71

33.3%

Sig Str %

24%

51 / 89

Total Strikes

44 / 107

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:39

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francis Carmont	1 / 4	13 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Jacare Souza	1 / 5	16 / 24	1 / 1	1
2	Francis Carmont	15 / 51	15 / 51	0 / 1	0
2	Jacare Souza	8 / 29	9 / 30	0 / 2	0
3	Francis Carmont	3 / 16	16 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Jacare Souza	7 / 13	26 / 35	1 / 1	2

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9