← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

5 Rounds

Jacare Souza won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1400

Elo1454

Jacare SouzavsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · Saturday, January 27, 2018Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Jacare Souza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:50

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsDerek Brunson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacare Souza at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jacare Souza has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Derek Brunson has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
Derek Brunson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1400

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricDerek Brunson

2.53

Strikes / min

3.51

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

62%

Strike defense

51%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

3.14

57%

Takedown defense

85%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacare SouzaDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacare Souza(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.9|Blue +53.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

70% acc · 78%

Head

18% acc · 63%

18% acc · 22%

Body

50% acc · 25%

Leg

50% acc · 13%

By position

35% acc · 67%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

67% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacare Souza rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 21

Sig Strikes

8 / 34

42%

Sig Str %

23%

9 / 21

Total Strikes

8 / 34

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derek Brunson	8 / 34	8 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Jacare Souza	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 1	0

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21