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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jacare Souza won · SUB R1

Elo1400

Elo1360

Jacare SouzavsChris CamozziUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jacare Souza won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:33

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(77.7%)

Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacare Souza at -1600 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jacare Souza threatens submissions; Chris Camozzi has lost 40% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza

Red Corner

Chris Camozzi

Blue Corner

-1600

(94%)

Vegas Odds

+1050

(9%)

1400

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Chris CamozziL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricChris Camozzi

2.53

Strikes / min

3.57

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

62%

Strike defense

56%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

0.27

57%

Takedown defense

57%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacare SouzaChris Camozzi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacare Souza(10 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.9|Blue -39.9

Recent Form

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetChris Camozzi

By target zone

50% acc · 33%

Head

25% acc · 29%

80% acc · 67%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 71%

By position

63% acc · 83%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacare Souza rounds

even

Chris Camozzi rounds

Round 1Jacare Souza edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:29

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 9

Sig Strikes

7 / 14

66%

Sig Str %

50%

10 / 13

Total Strikes

7 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Camozzi	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Jacare Souza	6 / 9	10 / 13	1 / 1	1

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19