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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Andre Muniz won · SUB
Elo1400
Jacare Souza
Elo1485
Andre Muniz

Jacare SouzavsAndre MunizUFC Prediction Result

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · Saturday, May 15, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Andre Muniz won

SUB

Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsAndre Muniz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Andre Muniz wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Andre Muniz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Muniz at -103 American odds

+$97 profit

$197 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jacare Souza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jacare Souza has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jacare Souza has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Andre Muniz (53.5%).
  • Andre Muniz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jacare Souza
Red Corner
VS
Andre Muniz
Blue Corner
-117
(54%)
Vegas Odds
-103
(51%)
1400
Elo
1485
46
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacare SouzaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · May 18
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19
L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19
L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20
latest
Andre MunizL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 23
L
KOvs Paul Craig · Jul 23
W
vs JunYong Park · Dec 23
L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Apr 25
L
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacare SouzaMetricAndre Muniz
2.53
Strikes / min
2.08
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
2.46
62%
Strike defense
51%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
3.98
57%
Takedown defense
35%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1538Strikes2.5 vs 2.2Takedowns2.6 vs 3.1Sub Atts1.30 vs 2.30Form-0.8 vs 1.0
Jacare SouzaAndre Muniz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Andre Muniz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -84.4|Blue +84.4
Recent Form
Red -1.8|Blue +1.8
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacare SouzaTargetAndre Muniz

By target zone

5
38% acc · 45%
Head
3
38% acc · 43%
4
100% acc · 36%
Body
2
100% acc · 29%
2
100% acc · 18%
Leg
2
100% acc · 29%

By position

7
54% acc · 64%
Distance
6
55% acc · 86%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 14%
4
67% acc · 36%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jacare Souza rounds
1
even
0
Andre Muniz rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:53
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:10Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
11 / 19
Sig Strikes
7 / 12
57%
Sig Str %
58%
15 / 23
Total Strikes
19 / 26
1 / 2
TDs
2 / 3
50%
TD %
66%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:53
Ctrl Time
1:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andre Muniz7 / 1219 / 262 / 31
1Jacare Souza11 / 1915 / 231 / 20

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17

Andre Muniz

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10