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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Iwo Baraniewski won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1564

Elo1448

Iwo BaraniewskivsJunior TafaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Saturday, June 6, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Iwo Baraniewski won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:25

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Iwo Baraniewski

Style matchupIwo Baraniewski: Pressure fightervsJunior Tafa: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Iwo Baraniewski wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Iwo Baraniewski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Iwo Baraniewski has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Iwo Baraniewski

Red Corner

Junior Tafa

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1564

Elo

1448

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iwo BaraniewskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ibo Aslan · Dec 25

KOvs Austen Lane · Mar 26

latest

Junior TafaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Aug 24

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24

SUBvs Tuco Tokkos · Jul 25

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iwo BaraniewskiMetricJunior Tafa

15.77

Strikes / min

3.62

14.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

46%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.76evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iwo Baraniewski(3 fights)Junior Tafa(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +116.3|Blue -116.3

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iwo BaraniewskiTargetJunior Tafa

By target zone

11% acc · 33%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 17%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 67%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

14% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iwo Baraniewski rounds

even

Junior Tafa rounds

Round 1Iwo Baraniewski edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:17

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 22

Sig Strikes

0 / 8

27%

Sig Str %

6 / 22

Total Strikes

0 / 8

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Junior Tafa	0 / 8	0 / 8	0 / 0	0
1	Iwo Baraniewski	6 / 22	6 / 22	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 54% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Iwo Baraniewski

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Junior Tafa

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9