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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Iwo Baraniewski won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1564
Elo1468

Iwo BaraniewskivsIbo AslanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Iwo Baraniewski won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:29

Style matchupIwo Baraniewski: Pressure fightervsIbo Aslan: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Iwo Baraniewski wins(77.5%)

Actual result: Iwo Baraniewski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iwo Baraniewski at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ibo Aslan has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ibo Aslan has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Iwo Baraniewski
Red Corner
VS
Ibo Aslan
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1564
Elo
1468
27
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iwo BaraniewskiW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Austen Lane · Mar 26
W
KOvs Junior Tafa · Jun 26
latest
Ibo AslanL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Anton Turkalj · Mar 24
W
KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Oct 24
L
SUBvs Ion Cutelaba · Feb 25
L
vs Billy Elekana · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iwo BaraniewskiMetricIbo Aslan
15.77
Strikes / min
5.75
14.01
Strikes absorbed / min
3.96
46%
Strike defense
56%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
87%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.76evenly matched on net striking+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1494Strikes15.8 vs 5.8Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -0.4
Iwo BaraniewskiIbo Aslan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501483151515481580← oldermost recent →
Iwo Baraniewski(3 fights)Ibo Aslan(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +96.5|Blue -96.5
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +49.4|Blue -49.4
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iwo BaraniewskiTargetIbo Aslan

By target zone

18
67% acc · 82%
Head
29
62% acc · 97%
3
75% acc · 14%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 5%
Leg
1
50% acc · 3%

By position

6
43% acc · 27%
Distance
19
54% acc · 63%
6
100% acc · 27%
Clinch
11
61% acc · 37%
10
83% acc · 45%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Iwo Baraniewski rounds
1
even
0
Ibo Aslan rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns2
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
1
22 / 32
Sig Strikes
30 / 53
68%
Sig Str %
56%
28 / 39
Total Strikes
31 / 54
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ibo Aslan30 / 5331 / 540 / 10
1Iwo Baraniewski22 / 3228 / 390 / 10

Iwo Baraniewski

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Ibo Aslan

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights5