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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Iwo Baraniewski won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1564
Elo1449
Austen Lane

Iwo BaraniewskivsAusten LaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Iwo Baraniewski won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:28

Model Prediction: Iwo Baraniewski wins(83.4%)

Actual result: Iwo Baraniewski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iwo Baraniewski at -590 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Iwo Baraniewski is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Austen Lane has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Iwo Baraniewski has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Austen Lane has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Iwo Baraniewski
Red Corner
VS
Austen Lane
Blue Corner
-590
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+410
(20%)
1564
Elo
1449
27
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'6"
185.42 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iwo BaraniewskiW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Ibo Aslan · Dec 25
W
KOvs Junior Tafa · Jun 26
latest
Austen LaneL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Tafa · Sep 23
L
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Apr 24
W
vs Robelis Despaigne · Oct 24
L
KOvs Mario Pinto · Mar 25
L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iwo BaraniewskiMetricAusten Lane
15.77
Strikes / min
2.70
14.01
Strikes absorbed / min
2.45
46%
Strike defense
39%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.50
100%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.76Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1464Strikes15.8 vs 2.7Takedowns0.0 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -0.6
Iwo BaraniewskiAusten Lane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14301468150515431580← oldermost recent →
Iwo Baraniewski(3 fights)Austen Lane(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +115.8|Blue -115.8
Recent Form
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iwo BaraniewskiTargetAusten Lane

By target zone

9
75% acc · 90%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
1
100% acc · 10%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
40% acc · 20%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
8
100% acc · 80%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Iwo Baraniewski rounds
0
even
0
Austen Lane rounds
Round 1Iwo Baraniewski edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
10 / 13
Sig Strikes
0 / 4
76%
Sig Str %
0%
10 / 13
Total Strikes
0 / 4
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Austen Lane0 / 40 / 40 / 00
1Iwo Baraniewski10 / 1310 / 130 / 00

Iwo Baraniewski

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Austen Lane

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights6