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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Wilson Reis won · U-DEC R3
Elo1353
Elo1491
Wilson Reis

Ivan MenjivarvsWilson ReisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Wilson Reis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ivan Menjivar wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Wilson Reis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ivan Menjivar at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ivan Menjivar has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ivan Menjivar
Red Corner
VS
Wilson Reis
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1353
Elo
1491
44
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'4"
162.56 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ivan MenjivarL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs John Albert · Feb 12
L
vs Mike Easton · Jul 12
W
SUBvs Azamat Gashimov · Nov 12
L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Feb 13
L
vs Hatsu Hioki · Mar 14
latest
Wilson Reis
oldest →
L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17
L
vs John Moraga · Apr 18
W
vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18
L
KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ivan MenjivarMetricWilson Reis
2.78
Strikes / min
1.83
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
65%
Strike defense
55%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
5.15
38%
Takedown defense
47%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1527 vs 1500Strikes21.6 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.71 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
Ivan MenjivarWilson Reis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ivan Menjivar(8 fights)Wilson Reis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.6|Blue +138.6
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ivan MenjivarTargetWilson Reis

By target zone

8
28% acc · 28%
Head
12
17% acc · 36%
13
65% acc · 45%
Body
6
75% acc · 18%
8
62% acc · 28%
Leg
15
94% acc · 45%

By position

18
37% acc · 62%
Distance
14
21% acc · 42%
7
100% acc · 24%
Clinch
7
78% acc · 21%
4
67% acc · 14%
Ground
12
57% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Ivan Menjivar rounds
0
even
3
Wilson Reis rounds
Round 1Wilson Reis edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 2Wilson Reis edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:52Control
Round 3Wilson Reis edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
29 / 62
Sig Strikes
33 / 96
45.3%
Sig Str %
36%
86 / 123
Total Strikes
78 / 150
0 / 0
TDs
4 / 6
—
TD %
77.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
7:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Wilson Reis13 / 4617 / 531 / 10
1Ivan Menjivar15 / 3538 / 590 / 00
2Wilson Reis9 / 2724 / 442 / 20
2Ivan Menjivar11 / 1840 / 500 / 00
3Wilson Reis11 / 2337 / 531 / 30
3Ivan Menjivar3 / 98 / 140 / 00

Ivan Menjivar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights8

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights13