Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ivan Menjivar won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1351

Ivan MenjivarvsNick PaceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Saturday, August 6, 2011Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Ivan Menjivar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nick Pace wins(81.9%)

Actual result: Ivan Menjivar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Pace at +154 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ivan Menjivar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nick Pace has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Nick Pace has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ivan Menjivar

Red Corner

Nick Pace

Blue Corner

-164

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+154

(39%)

1353

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ivan MenjivarL3 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Easton · Jul 12

SUBvs Azamat Gashimov · Nov 12

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Feb 13

vs Wilson Reis · Sep 13

vs Hatsu Hioki · Mar 14

latest

Nick Pace

oldest →

SUBvs Will Campuzano · Dec 10

vs Miguel Torres · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ivan MenjivarMetricNick Pace

2.78

Strikes / min

1.48

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

65%

Strike defense

57%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

2.52

38%

Takedown defense

54%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap-1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ivan MenjivarNick Pace

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ivan Menjivar(8 fights)Nick Pace(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ivan MenjivarTargetNick Pace

By target zone

21% acc · 41%

Head

23% acc · 74%

52% acc · 25%

Body

33% acc · 10%

60% acc · 34%

Leg

56% acc · 16%

By position

33% acc · 92%

Distance

26% acc · 90%

56% acc · 8%

Clinch

40% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ivan Menjivar rounds

even

Nick Pace rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 2Ivan Menjivar edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:01

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Ivan Menjivar edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 181

Sig Strikes

31 / 116

32.3%

Sig Str %

24.3%

87 / 208

Total Strikes

34 / 121

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

3:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nick Pace	6 / 28	6 / 29	1 / 3	1
1	Ivan Menjivar	12 / 43	31 / 63	0 / 0	0
2	Nick Pace	5 / 22	7 / 25	1 / 1	0
2	Ivan Menjivar	25 / 69	31 / 75	0 / 0	0
3	Nick Pace	20 / 66	21 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Ivan Menjivar	24 / 69	25 / 70	0 / 1	0

Ivan Menjivar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights8

Nick Pace

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3