Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ivan Menjivar won · SUB R1

Elo1353

Elo1352

Ivan MenjivarvsJohn AlbertUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Ivan Menjivar won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:45

Model Prediction: Ivan Menjivar wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Ivan Menjivar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ivan Menjivar at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ivan Menjivar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
John Albert enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ivan Menjivar threatens submissions; John Albert has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Ivan Menjivar has 30pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Albert has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ivan Menjivar

Red Corner

John Albert

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ivan MenjivarL3 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Easton · Jul 12

SUBvs Azamat Gashimov · Nov 12

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Feb 13

vs Wilson Reis · Sep 13

vs Hatsu Hioki · Mar 14

latest

John AlbertL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Pague · Dec 11

SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 12

SUBvs Scott Jorgensen · Dec 12

SUBvs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ivan MenjivarMetricJohn Albert

2.78

Strikes / min

3.05

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

65%

Strike defense

35%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.00

38%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

6.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ivan MenjivarJohn Albert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ivan Menjivar(8 fights)John Albert(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ivan MenjivarTargetJohn Albert

By target zone

70% acc · 84%

Head

45% acc · 55%

80% acc · 16%

Body

80% acc · 39%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

36% acc · 16%

Distance

47% acc · 55%

0% acc

Clinch

87% acc · 42%

91% acc · 84%

Ground

25% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ivan Menjivar rounds

even

John Albert rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control2:09

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 35

Sig Strikes

31 / 55

71%

Sig Str %

56%

33 / 44

Total Strikes

37 / 64

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Albert	31 / 55	37 / 64	0 / 0	3
1	Ivan Menjivar	25 / 35	33 / 44	1 / 1	2

Ivan Menjivar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights8

John Albert

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5