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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Ivan Menjivar won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Elo1490
Charlie Valencia

Ivan MenjivarvsCharlie ValenciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Ivan Menjivar won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:30

Model Prediction: Ivan Menjivar wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Ivan Menjivar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ivan Menjivar at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ivan Menjivar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Charlie Valencia has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Charlie Valencia has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ivan Menjivar
Red Corner
VS
Charlie Valencia
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1353
Elo
1490
44
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'3"
162.56 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ivan MenjivarL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Mike Easton · Jul 12
W
SUBvs Azamat Gashimov · Nov 12
L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Feb 13
L
vs Wilson Reis · Sep 13
L
vs Hatsu Hioki · Mar 14
latest
Charlie ValenciaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ivan MenjivarMetricCharlie Valencia
2.78
Strikes / min
2.58
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
65%
Strike defense
77%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
1.40
38%
Takedown defense
75%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes8.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts2.00 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Ivan MenjivarCharlie Valencia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Ivan Menjivar(8 fights)Charlie Valencia(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.3|Blue +137.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ivan MenjivarTargetCharlie Valencia

By target zone

5
28% acc · 63%
Head
1
25% acc · 20%
2
50% acc · 25%
Body
3
100% acc · 60%
1
50% acc · 13%
Leg
1
33% acc · 20%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
29% acc · 40%
4
80% acc · 50%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 60%
4
44% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ivan Menjivar rounds
0
even
0
Charlie Valencia rounds
Round 1Ivan Menjivar edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:13
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 24
Sig Strikes
5 / 10
33%
Sig Str %
50%
12 / 29
Total Strikes
5 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:13
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Charlie Valencia5 / 105 / 100 / 00
1Ivan Menjivar8 / 2412 / 290 / 00

Ivan Menjivar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights8

Charlie Valencia

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights1