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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ivan Menjivar won · SUB R1

Elo1353

Elo1352

Ivan MenjivarvsAzamat GashimovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Ivan Menjivar won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:44

Model Prediction: Ivan Menjivar wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Ivan Menjivar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ivan Menjivar at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ivan Menjivar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ivan Menjivar threatens submissions; Azamat Gashimov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Ivan Menjivar has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ivan Menjivar has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ivan Menjivar

Red Corner

Azamat Gashimov

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ivan MenjivarL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Albert · Feb 12

vs Mike Easton · Jul 12

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Feb 13

vs Wilson Reis · Sep 13

vs Hatsu Hioki · Mar 14

latest

Azamat Gashimov

oldest →

KOvs John Lineker · May 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ivan MenjivarMetricAzamat Gashimov

2.78

Strikes / min

1.24

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

4.75

65%

Strike defense

53%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.69

38%

Takedown defense

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02Δ 3.53 — meaningful gap-3.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ivan MenjivarAzamat Gashimov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ivan Menjivar(8 fights)Azamat Gashimov(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ivan MenjivarTargetAzamat Gashimov

By target zone

60% acc · 50%

Head

27% acc · 75%

33% acc · 17%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

50% acc · 67%

Distance

25% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

40% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ivan Menjivar rounds

even

Azamat Gashimov rounds

Round 1Azamat Gashimov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

4 / 13

60%

Sig Str %

30%

25 / 32

Total Strikes

18 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Azamat Gashimov	4 / 13	18 / 28	1 / 1	0
1	Ivan Menjivar	6 / 10	25 / 32	0 / 0	1

Ivan Menjivar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights8

Azamat Gashimov

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach—

Fights2