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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ivan Jorge won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Ivan JorgevsJosh ShockleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · Sunday, February 22, 2015Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Official fight result

Ivan Jorge won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ivan Jorge wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Ivan Jorge wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ivan Jorge at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ivan Jorge

Red Corner

Josh Shockley

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ivan JorgeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Keith Wisniewski · Sep 13

vs Rodrigo Damm · Feb 14

SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 15

latest

Josh Shockley

oldest →

KOvs Jason Saggo · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ivan JorgeMetricJosh Shockley

3.41

Strikes / min

1.40

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

59%

Strike defense

60%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

61%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ivan JorgeJosh Shockley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ivan Jorge(4 fights)Josh Shockley(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.1|Blue -136.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ivan JorgeTargetJosh Shockley

By target zone

26% acc · 40%

Head

31% acc · 82%

53% acc · 40%

Body

33% acc · 18%

83% acc · 20%

Leg

0% acc

By position

33% acc · 76%

Distance

27% acc · 64%

86% acc · 24%

Clinch

39% acc · 32%

Ground

33% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ivan Jorge rounds

even

Josh Shockley rounds

Round 1Ivan Jorge edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control3:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:12

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ivan Jorge edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:33

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 64

Sig Strikes

22 / 72

35.7%

Sig Str %

30%

41 / 81

Total Strikes

34 / 87

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 2

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:07

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Shockley	6 / 16	9 / 19	0 / 1	0
1	Ivan Jorge	2 / 11	12 / 21	2 / 3	1
2	Josh Shockley	12 / 37	13 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Ivan Jorge	10 / 30	10 / 30	0 / 4	0
3	Josh Shockley	4 / 19	12 / 30	0 / 1	0
3	Ivan Jorge	13 / 23	19 / 30	1 / 3	0

Ivan Jorge

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Josh Shockley

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2