Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Iuri Alcantara won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Iuri AlcantaravsRussell DoaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · Saturday, September 13, 2014Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Iuri Alcantara won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsRussell Doane: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Russell Doane wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Iuri Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Russell Doane at +285 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Russell Doane

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Russell Doane

oldest →

vs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 15

SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Jul 16

SUBvs Mirsad Bektic · Oct 16

KOvs Kwan Ho Kwak · Jun 17

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricRussell Doane

2.72

Strikes / min

1.75

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

1.68

49%

Strike defense

53%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

2.11

60%

Takedown defense

52%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iuri AlcantaraRussell Doane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Russell Doane(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetRussell Doane

By target zone

38% acc · 41%

Head

33% acc · 93%

70% acc · 59%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 70%

Distance

11% acc · 14%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

71% acc · 19%

Ground

52% acc · 79%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Russell Doane rounds

Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:24

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 2Russell Doane edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:51Control

Round 3Russell Doane edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:45

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 52

Sig Strikes

14 / 41

50.7%

Sig Str %

34.7%

59 / 88

Total Strikes

98 / 139

2 / 4

TDs

6 / 12

66.5%

TD %

49.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

8:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Russell Doane	5 / 15	24 / 36	1 / 3
1	Iuri Alcantara	11 / 17	17 / 25	1 / 1
2	Russell Doane	4 / 15	45 / 64	3 / 4
2	Iuri Alcantara	13 / 28	24 / 40	0 / 0
3	Russell Doane	5 / 11	29 / 39	2 / 5
3	Iuri Alcantara	3 / 7	18 / 23	1 / 3

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Russell Doane

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8