Featherweight

3 Rounds

Iuri Alcantara won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1352

Iuri AlcantaravsMichihiro OmigawaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Iuri Alcantara won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsMichihiro Omigawa: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Iuri Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at -192 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michihiro Omigawa has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Michihiro Omigawa

Blue Corner

-192

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+177

(36%)

1491

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Michihiro Omigawa

oldest →

vs Chad Mendes · Feb 11

vs Darren Elkins · Jun 11

vs Jason Young · Nov 11

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricMichihiro Omigawa

2.72

Strikes / min

2.01

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

49%

Strike defense

64%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.19

60%

Takedown defense

49%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iuri AlcantaraMichihiro Omigawa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Michihiro Omigawa(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.6|Blue -139.6

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetMichihiro Omigawa

By target zone

38% acc · 77%

Head

48% acc · 83%

87% acc · 22%

Body

67% acc · 17%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 73%

Distance

49% acc · 96%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Michihiro Omigawa rounds

Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:23

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 2Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control3:54

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 137

Sig Strikes

24 / 48

47.3%

Sig Str %

53.3%

101 / 181

Total Strikes

74 / 107

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:18

Ctrl Time

2:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michihiro Omigawa	6 / 13	33 / 42	0 / 2	0
1	Iuri Alcantara	22 / 53	28 / 60	0 / 0	1
2	Michihiro Omigawa	4 / 6	13 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Iuri Alcantara	18 / 27	49 / 60	0 / 0	1
3	Michihiro Omigawa	14 / 29	28 / 50	1 / 2	0
3	Iuri Alcantara	20 / 57	24 / 61	0 / 0	0

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Michihiro Omigawa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5