Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Iuri Alcantara won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1400

Iuri AlcantaravsLuke SandersUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Iuri Alcantara won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:13

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsLuke Sanders: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Iuri Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Iuri Alcantara has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Luke Sanders

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1491

Elo

1400

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Oct 16

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Luke SandersL2 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Williams · Apr 18

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 18

KOvs Renan Barao · Feb 19

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 20

vs Felipe Colares · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricLuke Sanders

2.72

Strikes / min

6.61

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

49%

Strike defense

50%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.71

60%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap+2.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iuri AlcantaraLuke Sanders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Luke Sanders(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +91.4|Blue -91.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -265.0|Blue +265.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetLuke Sanders

By target zone

20% acc · 52%

Head

71% acc · 96%

50% acc · 22%

Body

57% acc · 4%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

By position

27% acc · 83%

Distance

32% acc · 16%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

93% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Luke Sanders rounds

Round 1Luke Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:03

75Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:40Control

Round 2Luke Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:02

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 75

Sig Strikes

94 / 134

30%

Sig Str %

63%

27 / 79

Total Strikes

134 / 182

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

3:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luke Sanders	75 / 94	107 / 132	1 / 1	0
1	Iuri Alcantara	13 / 41	15 / 43	1 / 1	0
2	Luke Sanders	19 / 40	27 / 50	0 / 1	0
2	Iuri Alcantara	10 / 34	12 / 36	0 / 1	1

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Luke Sanders

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8