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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Iuri Alcantara won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1364

Iuri AlcantaravsJoe SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Saturday, February 3, 2018Belem, Para, Brazil

Official fight result

Iuri Alcantara won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:06

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsJoe Soto: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Iuri Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Iuri Alcantara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joe Soto has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).
Iuri Alcantara has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Joe Soto

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1491

Elo

1364

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri AlcantaraL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Oct 16

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Joe Soto

oldest →

vs Michinori Tanaka · Jan 16

SUBvs Chris Beal · Jun 16

SUBvs Marco Beltran · Nov 16

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 17

SUBvs Brett Johns · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricJoe Soto

2.72

Strikes / min

3.36

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

5.37

49%

Strike defense

67%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.85

60%

Takedown defense

70%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.94 — meaningful gap-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iuri AlcantaraJoe Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Joe Soto(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +127.4|Blue -127.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -8.0|Blue +8.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetJoe Soto

By target zone

50% acc · 76%

Head

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 6%

Leg

0% acc

By position

47% acc · 47%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

73% acc · 47%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Joe Soto rounds

Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 30

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

56%

Sig Str %

50%

17 / 30

Total Strikes

1 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Soto	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 1	0
1	Iuri Alcantara	17 / 30	17 / 30	0 / 0	0

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Joe Soto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8