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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jimmie Rivera won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1493

Iuri AlcantaravsJimmie RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jimmie Rivera won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsJimmie Rivera: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jimmie Rivera wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Jimmie Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimmie Rivera at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jimmie Rivera has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jimmie Rivera has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Jimmie Rivera

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'4"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Jimmie Rivera

oldest →

vs John Dodson · Sep 18

vs Aljamain Sterling · Feb 19

vs Petr Yan · Jun 19

vs Cody Stamann · Jul 20

vs Pedro Munhoz · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricJimmie Rivera

2.72

Strikes / min

4.03

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

49%

Strike defense

60%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.88

60%

Takedown defense

92%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iuri AlcantaraJimmie Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Jimmie Rivera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetJimmie Rivera

By target zone

25% acc · 44%

Head

31% acc · 47%

68% acc · 41%

Body

62% acc · 29%

75% acc · 15%

Leg

79% acc · 24%

By position

36% acc · 88%

Distance

42% acc · 78%

83% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 22%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Jimmie Rivera rounds

Round 1Jimmie Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Jimmie Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:01

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 106

Sig Strikes

45 / 102

37%

Sig Str %

44.7%

43 / 108

Total Strikes

64 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jimmie Rivera	13 / 38	13 / 38	1 / 1
1	Iuri Alcantara	9 / 29	9 / 29	0 / 0
2	Jimmie Rivera	15 / 28	29 / 44	1 / 2
2	Iuri Alcantara	11 / 34	13 / 36	0 / 0
3	Jimmie Rivera	17 / 36	22 / 42	1 / 3
3	Iuri Alcantara	21 / 43	21 / 43	0 / 0

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Jimmie Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11