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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Iuri Alcantara won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1352
Iliarde Santos

Iuri AlcantaravsIliarde SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Iuri Alcantara won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:31

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsIliarde Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Iuri Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Iliarde Santos has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).
  • Iuri Alcantara has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara
Red Corner
VS
Iliarde Santos
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
1491
Elo
1352
45
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'5"
180.34 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara
oldest →
W
SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17
L
SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17
L
vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17
W
KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18
latest
Iliarde SantosL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ian McCall · Aug 13
L
KOvs Chris Cariaso · Oct 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricIliarde Santos
2.72
Strikes / min
3.00
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
6.10
49%
Strike defense
57%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
1.66
60%
Takedown defense
83%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 3.03 — meaningful gap-3.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1513 vs 1500Strikes30.3 vs —Takedowns1.8 vs —Sub Atts1.00 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Iuri AlcantaraIliarde Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Iliarde Santos(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.7|Blue -138.7
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetIliarde Santos

By target zone

16
47% acc · 84%
Head
0
0% acc
3
100% acc · 16%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
3
100% acc · 100%

By position

11
39% acc · 58%
Distance
2
22% acc · 67%
2
100% acc · 11%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 33%
6
86% acc · 32%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Iuri Alcantara rounds
0
even
0
Iliarde Santos rounds
Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:05
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
19 / 37
Sig Strikes
3 / 10
51%
Sig Str %
30%
23 / 41
Total Strikes
4 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:25

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Iliarde Santos3 / 104 / 110 / 20
1Iuri Alcantara19 / 3723 / 410 / 00

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17

Iliarde Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3