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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Hacran Dias won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1362

Iuri AlcantaravsHacran DiasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 · Saturday, June 23, 2012Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Hacran Dias won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsHacran Dias: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(84.9%)

Actual result: Hacran Dias wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at -178 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hacran Dias enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Hacran Dias has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Hacran Dias

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+167

(37%)

1491

Elo

1362

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Hacran DiasL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 14

vs Levan Makashvili · Jun 15

vs Cub Swanson · Apr 16

vs Andre Fili · Oct 16

vs Jared Gordon · Oct 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricHacran Dias

2.72

Strikes / min

2.08

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

49%

Strike defense

55%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

2.50

60%

Takedown defense

76%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap-1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iuri AlcantaraHacran Dias

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Hacran Dias(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.8|Blue -128.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetHacran Dias

By target zone

26% acc · 53%

Head

29% acc · 42%

75% acc · 32%

Body

40% acc · 11%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

82% acc · 47%

By position

28% acc · 58%

Distance

30% acc · 42%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

67% acc · 21%

Ground

65% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Hacran Dias rounds

Round 1Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:35

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:45Control

Round 2Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:32Control

Round 3Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:33

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 50

Sig Strikes

19 / 44

44.7%

Sig Str %

50.3%

36 / 71

Total Strikes

108 / 144

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 10

TD %

63.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

8:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hacran Dias	9 / 10	41 / 44	2 / 4	0
1	Iuri Alcantara	6 / 9	11 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Hacran Dias	4 / 19	36 / 56	1 / 1	0
2	Iuri Alcantara	5 / 12	5 / 14	0 / 1	1
3	Hacran Dias	6 / 15	31 / 44	2 / 5	0
3	Iuri Alcantara	8 / 29	20 / 43	0 / 0	0

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Hacran Dias

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8