Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Frankie Saenz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1387

Iuri AlcantaravsFrankie SaenzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · Sunday, February 22, 2015Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Official fight result

Frankie Saenz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsFrankie Saenz: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Frankie Saenz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at +725 American odds

+$725 profit

$825 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).
Iuri Alcantara has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Frankie Saenz

Blue Corner

-925

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+725

(12%)

1491

Elo

1387

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Frankie SaenzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17

vs Henry Briones · May 18

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricFrankie Saenz

2.72

Strikes / min

3.94

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

49%

Strike defense

52%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.74

60%

Takedown defense

61%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iuri AlcantaraFrankie Saenz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Frankie Saenz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +104.1|Blue -104.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetFrankie Saenz

By target zone

41% acc · 58%

Head

31% acc · 36%

85% acc · 35%

Body

45% acc · 23%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

82% acc · 41%

By position

46% acc · 74%

Distance

18% acc · 16%

83% acc · 16%

Clinch

81% acc · 30%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

59% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Frankie Saenz rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:20

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 2Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:06

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:46Control

Round 3Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:36

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 59

Sig Strikes

44 / 95

53.3%

Sig Str %

45.3%

49 / 77

Total Strikes

122 / 184

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 4

50%

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:02

Ctrl Time

6:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Frankie Saenz	9 / 29	23 / 43	1 / 1
1	Iuri Alcantara	11 / 19	16 / 24	1 / 2
2	Frankie Saenz	22 / 41	50 / 73	1 / 1
2	Iuri Alcantara	12 / 26	19 / 33	0 / 1
3	Frankie Saenz	13 / 25	49 / 68	1 / 2
3	Iuri Alcantara	8 / 14	14 / 20	1 / 1

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10