Featherweight

3 Rounds

Iuri Alcantara won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1366

Iuri AlcantaravsFelipe ArantesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · Saturday, August 27, 2011Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Iuri Alcantara won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Iuri Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felipe Arantes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Iuri Alcantara has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Felipe Arantes

Blue Corner

-475

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1491

Elo

1366

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Felipe ArantesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16

vs Erik Perez · Nov 16

vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricFelipe Arantes

2.72

Strikes / min

2.37

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

49%

Strike defense

64%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.93

60%

Takedown defense

41%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Felipe Arantes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +125.2|Blue -125.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetFelipe Arantes

By target zone

32% acc · 55%

Head

52% acc · 48%

75% acc · 41%

Body

70% acc · 24%

50% acc · 5%

Leg

80% acc · 28%

By position

33% acc · 59%

Distance

57% acc · 69%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 10%

67% acc · 27%

Ground

75% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Felipe Arantes rounds

Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:02

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:03

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control2:10

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 52

Sig Strikes

29 / 47

52.7%

Sig Str %

61.7%

75 / 123

Total Strikes

54 / 77

6 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:15

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe Arantes	11 / 17	13 / 19	0 / 0
1	Iuri Alcantara	15 / 40	33 / 66	1 / 1
2	Felipe Arantes	8 / 16	9 / 17	0 / 0
2	Iuri Alcantara	5 / 9	22 / 30	2 / 2
3	Felipe Arantes	10 / 14	32 / 41	0 / 0
3	Iuri Alcantara	2 / 3	20 / 27	3 / 3

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11