Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brian Kelleher won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1489

Iuri AlcantaravsBrian KelleherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Saturday, June 3, 2017Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Brian Kelleher won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:48

Style matchupIuri Alcantara: Well-roundedvsBrian Kelleher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at -380 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (54.1%).
Iuri Alcantara has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Iuri Alcantara

Red Corner

Brian Kelleher

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1491

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Oct 16

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iuri AlcantaraMetricBrian Kelleher

2.72

Strikes / min

3.31

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

49%

Strike defense

54%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.68

60%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iuri AlcantaraBrian Kelleher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iuri AlcantaraTargetBrian Kelleher

By target zone

38% acc · 67%

Head

13% acc · 25%

67% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 50%

0% acc

Leg

33% acc · 25%

By position

38% acc · 83%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iuri Alcantara rounds

even

Brian Kelleher rounds

Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:08

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 28

Sig Strikes

4 / 15

42%

Sig Str %

26%

12 / 29

Total Strikes

4 / 15

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Kelleher	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 0	1
1	Iuri Alcantara	12 / 28	12 / 29	1 / 1	0

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17