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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Ariane Carnelossi won · SUB R3

Elo1475

Elo1477

Istela NunesvsAriane CarnelossiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Saturday, October 16, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ariane Carnelossi won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:57

Model Prediction: Istela Nunes wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Ariane Carnelossi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Istela Nunes at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Istela Nunes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Istela Nunes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Istela Nunes has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Istela Nunes has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Istela Nunes

Red Corner

Ariane Carnelossi

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1475

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'2"

167.64 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Istela NunesL4 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Apr 22

KOvs Yazmin Jauregui · Dec 22

KOvs Viktoriia Dudakova · Jul 23

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Apr 25

latest

Ariane CarnelossiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Na Liang · Apr 21

vs Loopy Godinez · May 22

vs Piera Rodriguez · May 24

SUBvs Talita Alencar · Nov 25

KOvs Ketlen Souza · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Istela NunesMetricAriane Carnelossi

4.28

Strikes / min

2.63

4.07

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

59%

Strike defense

44%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.08

47%

Takedown defense

22%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap-1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Istela NunesAriane Carnelossi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Istela Nunes(5 fights)Ariane Carnelossi(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Istela NunesTargetAriane Carnelossi

By target zone

42% acc · 60%

Head

32% acc · 92%

73% acc · 26%

Body

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

50% acc · 87%

Distance

33% acc · 92%

80% acc · 13%

Clinch

38% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Istela Nunes rounds

even

Ariane Carnelossi rounds

Round 1Istela Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:21Control

Round 2Ariane Carnelossi edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:33Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 119

Sig Strikes

36 / 108

53%

Sig Str %

32.7%

98 / 156

Total Strikes

76 / 158

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 7

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ariane Carnelossi	18 / 52	34 / 70	1 / 1	0
1	Istela Nunes	31 / 63	37 / 69	0 / 0	0
2	Ariane Carnelossi	9 / 30	27 / 55	3 / 4	0
2	Istela Nunes	18 / 29	46 / 57	0 / 0	0
3	Ariane Carnelossi	9 / 26	15 / 33	1 / 2	1
3	Istela Nunes	13 / 27	15 / 30	0 / 0	0

Istela Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Ariane Carnelossi

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights7