Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Israel Adesanya won · U-DEC R5
Elo1464
Israel Adesanya
Elo1382

Israel AdesanyavsYoel RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Saturday, March 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsYoel Romero: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(74.0%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Yoel Romero is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (54.1%).
  • Israel Adesanya has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya
Red Corner
VS
Yoel Romero
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1464
Elo
1382
37
Age
49
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'0"
203.2 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23
L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24
L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25
L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26
latest
Yoel RomeroL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 16
L
vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17
W
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18
L
vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18
L
vs Paulo Costa · Aug 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricYoel Romero
4.03
Strikes / min
3.44
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
55%
Strike defense
60%
0.05
TDs / 15 min
1.57
76%
Takedown defense
78%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.81evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1637 vs 1604Strikes4.5 vs 3.7Takedowns0.0 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form1.1 vs -0.6
Israel AdesanyaYoel Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Yoel Romero(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +82.9|Blue -82.9
Recent Form
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetYoel Romero

By target zone

14
17% acc · 29%
Head
20
34% acc · 50%
9
41% acc · 19%
Body
7
54% acc · 18%
25
86% acc · 52%
Leg
13
72% acc · 33%

By position

48
36% acc · 100%
Distance
35
43% acc · 88%
0
Clinch
5
71% acc · 13%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Israel Adesanya rounds
0
even
2
Yoel Romero rounds
Round 1Yoel Romero edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Yoel Romero edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
48 / 132
Sig Strikes
40 / 89
33.8%
Sig Str %
49.8%
48 / 132
Total Strikes
40 / 89
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 3
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yoel Romero4 / 64 / 60 / 00
1Israel Adesanya2 / 112 / 110 / 00
2Yoel Romero7 / 147 / 140 / 00
2Israel Adesanya11 / 2911 / 290 / 00
3Yoel Romero9 / 149 / 140 / 00
3Israel Adesanya12 / 3012 / 300 / 00
4Israel Adesanya11 / 3311 / 330 / 00
4Yoel Romero6 / 226 / 220 / 20
5Yoel Romero14 / 3314 / 330 / 10
5Israel Adesanya12 / 2912 / 290 / 00

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13