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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Sean Strickland won · U-DEC R5

Elo1464

Elo1530

Israel AdesanyavsSean StricklandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Sean Strickland won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsSean Strickland: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Sean Strickland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -550 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).
Israel Adesanya has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya

Red Corner

Sean Strickland

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+410

(20%)

1464

Elo

1530

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Nov 22

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricSean Strickland

4.03

Strikes / min

5.98

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.05

TDs / 15 min

0.66

76%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Israel AdesanyaSean Strickland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Sean Strickland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.8|Blue +65.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetSean Strickland

By target zone

14% acc · 23%

Head

46% acc · 62%

63% acc · 40%

Body

73% acc · 33%

60% acc · 36%

Leg

64% acc · 5%

By position

35% acc · 100%

Distance

121

51% acc · 88%

Clinch

79% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Israel Adesanya rounds

even

Sean Strickland rounds

Round 1Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 271

Sig Strikes

137 / 259

34.2%

Sig Str %

51.8%

94 / 271

Total Strikes

137 / 259

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Strickland	27 / 52	27 / 52	0 / 0
1	Israel Adesanya	12 / 39	12 / 39	0 / 0
2	Sean Strickland	16 / 32	16 / 32	0 / 0
2	Israel Adesanya	20 / 64	20 / 64	0 / 0
3	Sean Strickland	20 / 41	20 / 41	0 / 0
3	Israel Adesanya	21 / 57	21 / 57	0 / 0
4	Israel Adesanya	20 / 51	20 / 51	0 / 0
4	Sean Strickland	38 / 63	38 / 63	0 / 0
5	Sean Strickland	36 / 71	36 / 71	0 / 0
5	Israel Adesanya	21 / 60	21 / 60	0 / 0

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25