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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Israel Adesanya won · U-DEC R5
Elo1464
Israel Adesanya
Elo1511
Robert Whittaker editorial illustration

Israel AdesanyavsRobert WhittakerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsRobert Whittaker: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).
  • Israel Adesanya has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya
Red Corner
VS
Robert Whittaker
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1464
Elo
1511
37
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'0"
203.2 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23
L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24
L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25
L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26
latest
Robert Whittaker
oldest →
W
vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricRobert Whittaker
4.03
Strikes / min
4.39
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
3.36
55%
Strike defense
59%
0.05
TDs / 15 min
0.73
76%
Takedown defense
82%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1665 vs 1690Strikes4.0 vs 4.6Takedowns0.1 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 0.9
Israel AdesanyaRobert Whittaker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501470149015101530← oldermost recent →
Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Robert Whittaker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -46.6|Blue +46.6
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetRobert Whittaker

By target zone

36
33% acc · 46%
Head
38
36% acc · 64%
14
61% acc · 18%
Body
8
73% acc · 14%
29
76% acc · 37%
Leg
13
65% acc · 22%

By position

77
46% acc · 97%
Distance
54
42% acc · 92%
2
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
5
83% acc · 8%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Israel Adesanya rounds
2
even
2
Robert Whittaker rounds
Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:52Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 4Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:40Control
Round 5Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:38Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
79 / 169
Sig Strikes
59 / 136
47.8%
Sig Str %
43.4%
98 / 188
Total Strikes
74 / 151
0 / 0
TDs
4 / 10
—
TD %
55%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
3:40

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Robert Whittaker9 / 219 / 210 / 20
1Israel Adesanya18 / 3418 / 340 / 00
2Robert Whittaker12 / 3317 / 381 / 10
2Israel Adesanya16 / 4124 / 490 / 00
3Robert Whittaker12 / 2812 / 281 / 20
3Israel Adesanya17 / 3317 / 330 / 00
4Robert Whittaker16 / 3519 / 381 / 10
4Israel Adesanya15 / 3915 / 390 / 00
5Israel Adesanya13 / 2224 / 330 / 00
5Robert Whittaker10 / 1917 / 261 / 40

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights26