← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Israel Adesanya won · KO/TKO

Elo1464

Elo1522

Israel AdesanyavsPaulo CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

KO/TKO

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsPaulo Costa: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -186 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Paulo Costa is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).
Israel Adesanya has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya

Red Corner

Paulo Costa

Blue Corner

-186

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+151

(40%)

1464

Elo

1522

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Paulo CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22

vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricPaulo Costa

4.03

Strikes / min

6.15

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

5.96

55%

Strike defense

49%

0.05

TDs / 15 min

0.30

76%

Takedown defense

77%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Israel AdesanyaPaulo Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.4|Blue +57.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetPaulo Costa

By target zone

47% acc · 44%

Head

15% acc · 17%

83% acc · 9%

Body

88% acc · 58%

96% acc · 47%

Leg

60% acc · 25%

By position

63% acc · 82%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

80% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Israel Adesanya rounds

even

Paulo Costa rounds

Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 84

Sig Strikes

12 / 26

64.5%

Sig Str %

48%

55 / 84

Total Strikes

12 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paulo Costa	7 / 11	7 / 11	0 / 0
1	Israel Adesanya	22 / 37	22 / 37	0 / 0
2	Paulo Costa	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0
2	Israel Adesanya	33 / 47	33 / 47	0 / 0

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11