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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Nassourdine Imavov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1464

Elo1541

Israel AdesanyavsNassourdine ImavovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Nassourdine Imavov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:30

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsNassourdine Imavov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Nassourdine Imavov wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Nassourdine Imavov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nassourdine Imavov at +134 American odds

+$134 profit

$234 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nassourdine Imavov enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).
Israel Adesanya has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya

Red Corner

Nassourdine Imavov

Blue Corner

-158

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+134

(43%)

1464

Elo

1541

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Nov 22

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Nassourdine ImavovW4 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Jan 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Feb 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Jun 24

vs Brendan Allen · Sep 24

vs Caio Borralho · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricNassourdine Imavov

4.03

Strikes / min

4.28

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.05

TDs / 15 min

0.74

76%

Takedown defense

81%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Israel AdesanyaNassourdine Imavov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Nassourdine Imavov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -76.3|Blue +76.3

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetNassourdine Imavov

By target zone

32% acc · 35%

Head

43% acc · 60%

75% acc · 23%

Body

0% acc

79% acc · 42%

Leg

86% acc · 40%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 67%

Clinch

Ground

83% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Israel Adesanya rounds

even

Nassourdine Imavov rounds

Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Nassourdine Imavov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 50

Sig Strikes

15 / 31

72.5%

Sig Str %

54%

32 / 56

Total Strikes

18 / 34

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nassourdine Imavov	8 / 21	10 / 23	0 / 3
1	Israel Adesanya	20 / 44	26 / 50	0 / 1
2	Nassourdine Imavov	7 / 10	8 / 11	0 / 0
2	Israel Adesanya	6 / 6	6 / 6	0 / 0

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Nassourdine Imavov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11