← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Israel Adesanya won · U-DEC R5

Elo1464

Elo1467

Israel AdesanyavsMarvin VettoriUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsMarvin Vettori: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (54.1%).
Israel Adesanya has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya

Red Corner

Marvin Vettori

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1464

Elo

1467

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricMarvin Vettori

4.03

Strikes / min

4.74

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

4.55

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.05

TDs / 15 min

1.41

76%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Israel AdesanyaMarvin Vettori

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Marvin Vettori(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.9|Blue +2.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetMarvin Vettori

By target zone

37% acc · 46%

Head

27% acc · 72%

55% acc · 11%

Body

88% acc · 12%

95% acc · 43%

Leg

90% acc · 16%

By position

51% acc · 89%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

91% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Israel Adesanya rounds

even

Marvin Vettori rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:32

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:04

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 5Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 181

Sig Strikes

58 / 176

51.8%

Sig Str %

32.8%

122 / 208

Total Strikes

91 / 211

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 14

—

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

6:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marvin Vettori	11 / 29	23 / 41	1 / 2
1	Israel Adesanya	18 / 32	19 / 33	0 / 0
2	Marvin Vettori	16 / 50	17 / 51	0 / 3
2	Israel Adesanya	28 / 49	33 / 55	0 / 0
3	Marvin Vettori	6 / 32	20 / 47	1 / 1
3	Israel Adesanya	19 / 35	20 / 36	0 / 0
4	Israel Adesanya	20 / 38	30 / 48	0 / 0
4	Marvin Vettori	16 / 42	16 / 42	1 / 4
5	Marvin Vettori	9 / 23	15 / 30	1 / 4
5	Israel Adesanya	11 / 27	20 / 36	0 / 0

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17